The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in some people who have an inflated notion about their capabilities. Their self assessment in regards to their knowledge and decision making reaches an elusive height. They make erroneous decisions. When such people sit in important leadership positions, they obstruct progress of the organization. Their misconceptions about themselves in regards to self cognitive abilities blind them from seeing errors; also their incompetence denies them to recognize other’s strengths. The concept was coined in 1999 by Cornell University psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger; the eponymous (named after persons) Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias. The incompetent people have an exaggerated notion of their knowledge and intelligence blights results and sometimes such results take decades to correct.
I quote an example of India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s decision of referring Kashmir to UNSC. This action of his had negated the Instrument of Accession that was signed by the Maharaja Hari Singh and even today Kashmir is under the control of the United Nations. It was a blunder of Nehru of rushing to U.N; even if Nehru could delay it till 1951 – 52, most of Kashmir would be in India. Kashmir issue has become sticky and oppressive even after India has gained independence seven decades back. Besides India and Pakistan it has many sides: the five regions of Kashmir and numerous political organizations.
One of the quotes of Charles Darwin says “ignorance more frequently begets confidence than what knowledge does”. I am sure most of us must have experience frustration by the incompetence of another person in our professional and private life. The frustration increases when the incompetent people do not recognize their own limitations. Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill and they fail to recognize genuine skill in others.
Hitler’s manifesto ‘Mein Kampf’ in particularly tells in terms of his total lack of insight into his own limitations. A budding narcissist, Hitler’s recounting of his schooling describes his propensity to argue with adults despite of not having yet received his education. This is an apt example of his cognitive bias.
In one experiment, Dunning and Kruger asked their 65 participants to rate how funny different jokes were. Some of the participants were exceptionally poor at determining what other people would find funny; yet these same participants described themselves as excellent judges of humor. The research found that incompetent people are not only poor performers; they are also unable to accurately review and recognize the quality of their own work. The low performers are unable to recognize the skill and competence levels of other people, which is part of the reason why they every time view themselves as better, more capable, and more knowledgeable than others.
Universally, this might be the reason why some students who earn failing scores in exams sometimes feel that they deserved a much higher score. They overrate their own knowledge and ability and are incompetent of seeing the mediocrity of their performance.
In 1708, Sweden invaded Russia during a winter so fierce that even Venice’s port froze. The invaders lost 16,000 men in that particular push. Just over 100 years later, Napoleon also attempted an occupation that began in the summer. By late fall, he’d lost thousands of soldiers and, though he succeeded in occupying Moscow, he eventually had to retreat. And the most famous example, however, occurred during WWII. Hitler believed he could take Russia before winter – but his army wasn’t ready when winter finally did come. In fact, things went so poorly in Russia that Hitler lost approximately 750,000 men before November.
Dunning and Kruger put forward that this phenomenon stems from what they refer to as a “dual burden.” People are not only inept and their ineptness robs them of the mental ability to realize just how inept they are. The least skilled people often overrate their ability because they have no idea how much they don’t know. In other words, poor performers believe they know everything in a particular subject and therefore they tend to be bombastic about it. In contrast, high performers are aware of the enormity and intricacies of the field they are working in. They know how much they don’t know, and thus, they usually underestimate their ability and competence in a particular area.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect also has to do with what scientists call Meta-cognition. It is described as “cognition about cognition”, “thinking about thinking”, and “knowing about knowing”. It is a higher form of cognition; to be aware of the awareness itself. A person with a high level of meta-cognition is able to become aware of his or her thought processes and view them from different fresh perspectives. This cognition about cognition allows them to analyze and judge their ideas, knowledge, and skills more accurately compared to people who are having difficulties with Meta-cognition.
The world is filled with incompetent leaders in all fields; often leadership positions seem glamorous but the crude reality is that many leaders hardly make any effect on their teams. When stupid leaders run a country, an organization, a hospital, a school, a University they push the organizations towards weakening from foundation. If someone is going to run a country properly, he/she need to be an expert at collecting viewpoints, appointing experts and sieving through them to produce effective and well-judged policy objectives that actually work. In the absence of that sort of expertise, only chaos will be created. And, aren’t we seeing this happening in most part of the world?
