The supply chain is as important as a backbone of businesses and the global economy, connecting raw material sources to the end consumer by managing the flow of goods and information, ensuring efficiency, quality, and timely delivery. This intricate system is crucial for providing products, boosting economic activity, modifying risks like disasters and geopolitical events, fostering innovation, and creating a competitive advantage for businesses.

Supply chain risks can cause big problems for firms. These risks come in many forms. Natural disasters, cyber-attacks, and supplier issues can all disrupt the flow of goods. The COVID-19 pandemic showed how fragile supply chains can be. Many companies struggled to get parts and materials. This led to empty shelves and angry customers. To cope, firms need to build supply chain resilience. This means having backup plans and suppliers. It also means using tech to spot problems early. Smart firms keep extra stock of key items too.

The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon in supply chain management where small changes in consumer demand create increasingly enlarged and distorted order quantities as they move up the supply chain from retailers to wholesalers to manufacturers. This exaggeration of demand leads to excess or insufficient inventory, higher costs, and reduced efficiency. It occurs because each stage in the supply chain lacks perfect information about actual consumer demand and tends to overreact to perceived changes, creating a ripple effect like a whip’s increasing motion.

The term “Bullwhip Effect” was first coined by Procter & Gamble researchers in the early 1990s. It described the phenomenon they observed in the supply chain for their Pampers brand diapers. They noticed that small changes amplified consumer demand as they moved up the supply chain, leading to significant inefficiencies and increased costs.

The bullwhip effect in a supply chain is when small changes in final consumer demand are magnified into increasingly larger fluctuations in orders as they move upstream to distributors, wholesalers, and manufacturers. This distortion causes parties to overcompensate for perceived changes in demand, leading to inefficient overproduction, excess inventory, stockouts, increased costs, and supply chain disruptions.

P&G experienced though the demand for their best-selling Pampers diapers was stable, the orders placed by retailers, distributors, and their own suppliers showed progressively larger fluctuations, leading to inefficiencies like excess inventory and increased costs. P&G coined the term to highlight this phenomenon, which they and other companies recognized as a major cause of inefficiencies in their supply chains. 

Common supply chain problems include material and labor shortages, logistics challenges like port congestion and rising transport costs, demand and supply imbalances, lack of visibility, geopolitical instability, and cybersecurity threats. These issues can lead to increased costs, operational disruptions, delays in delivery, and negative impacts on customer satisfaction. Some common problems for bullwhip are as follows: 

Demand Change at the Customer Level

A minor shift in consumer purchases occurs. A change in customer-level demand can disrupt a supply chain by creating sudden imbalances, leading to stockouts or excess inventory and increasing costs for businesses. This happens because the supply chain, which amplifies demand variability, struggles to react quickly enough to unexpected shifts, whether they are sudden surges or unexpected drops in demand.

Retailer Overreaction

The retailer, lacking full visibility into demand, overreacts to the perceived trend by increasing or decreasing their orders to the distributor by a larger margin. When retailers overreact to market conditions, they can cause supply chain disruptions through sudden spikes in demand (leading to shortages) or sudden drops in demand (leading to excess inventory). Overreactions, such as stockpiling or sudden order cuts, disrupt the flow of goods, causing higher costs, production halts, and potential loss of supplier and customer confidence. Effective supply chain management requires real-time visibility and intelligent demand forecasting to avoid these disruptions and ensure a smooth flow of products.

Amplified Orders Upstream

The wholesaler, receiving distorted information from multiple retailers, further inflates its own orders to the manufacturer. Where small fluctuations in customer demand become increasingly amplified as they move upstream from the retailer to the wholesaler, distributor, and manufacturer. This distortion leads to inefficiencies like excess inventory or shortages, increased costs, and operational instability, as each supply chain stage.

Magnified Demand Fluctuation

The manufacturer, with even less direct information about customer demand, drastically adjusts its production and orders from suppliers, creating the largest and most erratic swing.

Complex Supply Chain

The number of intermediaries between the manufacturer and the ultimate customer grows with a complex supply chain. Each intermediary may make assumptions about demand in a complex supply chain and place orders accordingly. Due to the sheer number of interconnected and interdependent entities, the vast amount of information and material flows involved, the global reach and multiple geographic locations of these entities, and the constant dynamic changes and disruptions that occur, making cause-and-effect relationships often unclear. These factors create a system with many moving parts that require significant coordination and can lead to cascading effects when problems arise.

Batch Orders

Batch order is a common practice in supply chain management where orders are placed in bulk at set intervals. The supplier and the retailer or distributor agree on a schedule for placing orders rather than placing orders as demand occurs. Batch ordering creates a distorted view of actual demand. This distortion of information leads to an excess inventory, which causes a stock-out or increase in holding costs. It can also lead to the bullwhip effect by creating a delay in the flow of information. This delay causes suppliers to react to changes in demand too late, leading to an oversupply or stock-out.

Consumer Pressure

Consumer pressure can cause the bullwhip effect by creating demand fluctuations that are difficult for suppliers to predict and address. It happens when consumers pressure retailers to stock a wide range of products and always have those products available. Consumer pressure leads to an overestimated demand and an increase in inventory levels. When consumers pressure retailers to stock a wide range of products, retailers place large orders to ensure they have enough supply to meet consumer demands.

Bad Communication

Distorted communication directly causes supply chain disruption by creating misaligned expectations, increasing operational costs, and leading to poor decision-making, which results in delays, shortages, and damaged relationships. This breakdown in information flow, especially in global networks, can be due to incompatible systems, data silos, security issues like cyber-attacks, or a general lack of real-time, transparent information exchange, hindering agile responses to unexpected events. It creates a lack of visibility and coordination among supply chain partners. It makes it difficult for suppliers to accurately predict demand and make informed inventory management and production levels decisions. Poor communication can lead to an overestimated demand and an increase in inventory levels, causing the bullwhip effect.

Price Volatility

Price volatility refers to the degree of price variations of a product or commodity over time. It measures how much the price of a product or commodity changes in each period.  Price volatility causes the bullwhip effect by creating uncertainty and unpredictability for suppliers. The rapid fluctuation in the price of a product or commodity makes it hard for suppliers to forecast future prices. This volatility causes them to overestimate demand, leading to an increase in inventory levels and the bullwhip effect in supply.

Lead Times Issues

Lead time is the time it takes for order fulfilment, from placing an order until the goods are received. Long lead times create delays in the flow of information between supply chain partners. This delay makes it difficult for suppliers to accurately predict demand and make informed inventory and production levels decisions. For example, if a supplier has long lead times, a retailer may place large safety stock orders to ensure they have enough inventory.

Incorrect Forecasts

Suppliers, retailers, and distributors often use historical data to make future forecasts. However, when there are significant changes in demand, it may cause them to base their projections on incorrect information. This wrong projection can lead to an overestimated demand and an increase in inventory levels. Incorrect supply chain forecasts create a vicious cycle of overstocking and stockouts, leading to increased costs, reduced profitability, and damaged customer satisfaction. This inaccuracy also triggers the bullwhip effect, amplifying small errors up the supply chain into significant demand and supply imbalances.

Cherry picking is marketing term to define customers who are price sensitive and they go from store to store to pick up best priced bargains. Mr. Eitel invented the cherry picker, a hydraulic crane originally designed to lift and lower people to pick cherries high off trees. It lets the fruit picker pick fruit high in a tree with relative ease. He invented the telescoping crane after enduring a tough summer harvesting cherries on a farm and founded Telsta Corp. The marketing term ‘cherry pickers’ has been originated from there. The price sensitive customers don’t mind spending their time and energy while going from store to store to pick up the best priced products and services. A substantial number of shoppers exist who are very practical, shrewd   and diligent enough to make cherry picking pay off.

A research by Stephen Hoch and Edward J. Fox  marketing professors at the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University confirm that when customers visit two super markets let’s say in ten categories and buy product at lower or higher price, the customers save up to 8%.  Hoch says that more than a few marketing experts and consumers consider cherry picking a “perverse” kind of shopping behavior and doubt that all the effort required to be a complete cherry picker is economically worthwhile. Hoch & Fox further comment that their research findings hold inferences for retailers who are the targets of cherry pickers. They do not fight cherry-picking and risk alienating customers; instead, try to entice cherry pickers into buying higher-margin items.

Cherry picking is worth its efforts because of a combination of factors when people go cherry picking, two things happen: They double the number of discount opportunities that will be available to them because they go to two stores. And, because stores have deals on more than one item, that increases the opportunities for cherry pickers to save money. The second thing that really makes cherry picking worth it, is that these shoppers buy more items than other shoppers. To make cherry picking pay off, you have to buy a lot of stuff. Cherry pickers perceive that they need to increase economies of scale to take advantage of the discounts available. It works great when customers shop till they drop. They save a lot not only in percentage terms but in money terms, which is what really counts.

Demographically, cherry pickers come in from all ages, monetary status, professions, educational qualifications – they are not much different than most people, except that they are single-minded about sniffing out low prices and pouncing on them. Cherry pickers usually have more time on their hands and have the endurance, most importantly they are aware of facts because of their research. According to Hoch’s research, they are usually older people with years of experience and seasoned. Older people are often price-sensitive because they are on fixed incomes. Cherry pickers have slightly larger families than most people. However, some cherry pickers are rich. They are always on lookout of news items in newspapers, magazines, on TV etc. They plan their day accordingly prior to their shopping; they pick some cherries here and different cherries there.

Cherry picking results into increased channel blurring; especially in Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) category. CPG marketers understand that consumers are seeking low-cost solutions to everyday needs, and they are acting to capitalize on that opportunity. The key takeaways for people who have been tempted to try their hand at cherry-picking is detailed research; where, when, why, how, what, how much, discounts etc, etc. Researched shopping can really pay big-time dividends if shoppers buy a lot of the item or items that their research has shown to be offered with discounts. For dirt cheap rates, they should buy the biggest box, bottle or carton available, buy as many as they can afford, and find a way to make room for all the stuff in their basement or garage.

Channel blurring: One effect of cherry picking is blurring of marketing channels.  Faced with budget constraints and higher food and fuel prices, many shoppers are tend to trim their basket size to save money while making more frequent trips to nearby grocery stores, vegetable store or drug store. In turn, drug and grocery stores have boosted their food and beverage offerings, while many grocers are rounding out their personal care product lines. With 55 percent of consumers eating out less often than prior to the recession, grocery retailers have stepped up their merchandising of convenient prepared foods while updating store formats to attract more consumers. Across channels, two-thirds of CPG (consumer packaged goods) categories have enjoyed increased merchandising support during the past few years. Aviation industry is also on packaging spree to attract more and more cherry pickers. Most corporations have tied up with a travel portal for offering travel packages at inclusive rates which also includes visa fees, airport transfer, apart from five star hotel stay, sight-seeing etc. The airlines are also offering installment facilities in which one has to pay a part of payment at the time of booking and paying the rest in two installments. This is how marketing channels are really blurring. And cherry pickers in their quest for value, consumers increasingly are willing to shop at a variety of channels to find the products they want at prices they can afford.

Cherry-picking varies depending on whether the store is the shopper’s primary grocery outlet or a secondary preference. The reasoning for this analysis is that shoppers are habituated to pick certain items from there and visit the secondary store to look out for sale and other bargains. In the secondary store shoppers spend as much in the primary store, and when they do patronize it, they opportunistically buy more sale items. According to Hoch and Fox secondary stores are hurt more by cherry-picking than primary stores because the pickers go there to buy low-cost items and virtually nothing else. Not only do secondary stores sell less per shopper, they also earn lower margins on what they sell to cherry pickers.

Message to Retailers: Hoch and Fox tell the retailers especially those in the grocery business and other household items types of retailing that they should simply accept that cherry picking happens and to do what they can to encourage shoppers to buy other goods. The fact is that in today’s economy, shoppers will continue to be careful about how they spend, and old channels will keep on blurring. E commerce as it is has redefined marketing channels. Retailers must learn to embrace complexity. While their brand might have been founded on certain attributes, but customers look out for many other attributes such as added value, convenience and newness. Carving their own niche can add strength. Retailers who try too hard to be all things to all people can overreach, just as those who focus too much on an ideal “core customer” can miss valuable opportunities. Awareness of channel-blurring also will be more important for some retailers than others. Cross merchandizing can be of great help, so when people come in to buy that one item (that is on sale), they can increase the customer’s basket size. However, the cross merchandizing needs serious thinking and practical approach.

 Today e-commerce is become part of our life. The arrival of e-commerce and m-commerce (mobile) has transformed the entire retail sector.  Retailers are tapping multiple channels for selling their merchandise; from traditional stores, using catalogue, through the internet and more and more via smart phones and tablets, no stone is left unturned. Technological advancement means that the store is omnipresent! It’s now everywhere, in consumers’ pockets, at their homes and at the mall too. For surviving the competition in the e-commerce world distribution has become key component of the business. Supply chain and logistics experts have become key players and the other important element being real estate – strategic locations for Distribution Centres (DC).

While retailers are developing their multichannel strategy multichannel marketing which refers to the practice by which companies interact with customers via multiple channels, both direct and indirect, distribution strategies also need to be worked at a faster pace especially when the bar has been raised with delivery models like same-day and next-day delivery at the customer’s doorstep.

Retail supply chain executives go for locating fulfilment facilities closer to their customer base in order to meet service commitment goals such as aggressive delivery schedules.

Retail chains are therefore finding online logistics more cost-effective. They rather opt for this than open more traditional stores that require an entirely different kind of distribution model. Therefore, retailers are evolving their regional distribution networks with the addition of e-commerce distribution centres. Traditional warehouses which act as stores require lesser investment and machinery and fewer staff.  The new e-commerce distribution centres, which involve direct order fulfilment, can cost three times as much and involve three times as many employees.

Retailers need to consider points such as proximity to key customers, tax incentives, sales tax and the availability of local labour which are vital for business when searching for the right location for their e-commerce distribution centres. Also, the global spread of technology into multichannel retailing has also opened up new markets in both developed and developing countries. While online sales are growing in the United States and UK, China and Hong Kong are following the trend. China’s consumers are fast embracing e- and m-commerce and are spending most of their money online. And as technology and commerce is expanding faster, retailers are finding it difficult to keep pace with logistics and infrastructure because these two fields are still emerging with newer software and newer gadgets.

In most cases domestic logistics service providers are unable to provide services to fulfil high volumes of customer parcel shipping at low costs and within a realistic delivery time frame, this noticeably impacts the direct-to-customer channel. Retailers have to thus establish their own distribution networks or rely on outsourced express shippers.  This leads to an opportunistic gap in the market for third-party (3PL) and forth-party (4PL) logistics companies and investment in industrial real estate infrastructure.

In the US for the past two decades, U.S. companies have been shifting production to markets with lower labour costs. However, as energy costs rise and labor becomes more expensive in Asian markets, companies are increasing near-shoring and on-shoring. Firms which opt for all-water options but cannot tolerate the lengthy shipping times from Asia are shifting some operations to near-shoring destinations such as Mexico or Central and South America and even back to the United States.  With production and demand closer to home, retailers can respond more quickly to trends and changes in buying patterns.

Nearly 80 percent of retailers say that online sales have increased in the past five years with some reporting increase of 25 percent or more. This has forced retailers to change the traditional distribution network for their e-commerce model. 3PL and 4 PL providers have gained a huge role to play in the e-commerce business model.

Generally, 3PL provider’s main business is to provide logistical services as its core activities. The logistics services offered are based on the range of its logistics’ function. They include freight forwarders, courier companies and other companies integrating & offering subcontracted logistics and transportation services. 4 PL differs from third party logistics in some of these ways: 4PL organization is often a separate entity established as a joint venture or long-term contract between a primary client and one or more partners; 4PL organization acts as a single interface between the client and multiple logistics service providers; ideally all aspects of the client’s supply chain are managed by the 4PL organization; and it is possible for a major third-party logistics provider to form a 4PL organization within its existing structure.

4PL was originally defined by Accenture as a trademark in 1996 and defined as “A supply chain integrator that assembles and manages the resources, capabilities, and technology of its own organization with those of complementary service providers to deliver a comprehensive supply chain solution.” but the concept has almost changed at present.

4PLs have also been referred to as “Lead Logistics Providers”. In the present scenario, new crop of companies have emerged who are actual transportation companies too. While a 4PL is sometimes described as non-asset-owning service provider, their role is to provide broader scope managing of the entire supply chain. The 4PL model offers a platform to get companies thinking about long-term strategy; developing an idea of what they want their future supply chain scene to look like.

If you look closer, the 4PL model actually drives 3PL outsourcing. The difference between the two activities ultimately comes down to scope. In a traditional transactional role, the 3PL will hold on to scope—managing a warehouse, for example. With a 4PL model, the scope recedes and flows. The service provider scales resources depending on different skill set requirements that turn upwards.

If e-commerce brings the logistics industry closer to the point of consumption, it has boosted the demand in the logistics industry. Would it be wrong if we call Amazon and Wal-Mart logistics companies? At heart, these companies are retailers; but, actually on the basis of the economics of these two companies, Amazon and Wal-Mart are far, far better at handling the logistics of their trade than their competitors and hence they are the leaders. Distribution is their core competence.

If you read the case of Amazon.com one understands how important firm’s logistics is in e-commerce. Amazon.com has come a long way since its founder and chief executive officer, Jeff Bezos, stopped imagining the company as a virtual bookstore. It has evolved into an online retail giant that generated US $74.45 billion in revenues in 2013. It is worth mentioning that much of that came from its support of more than two million companies that used Amazon to sell their products online and distribute them to customers. Under the company’s various programs, Amazon not only provides its customers with a means of advertising and selling their products, but also offers to store those products in its fulfilment centres; pick, pack, and ship them; and provide customer service which includes handling returns.

In the process of developing its network to support those services, Amazon has built out an infrastructure which by recent account includes 145 warehouses around the world! 84 in the United States, four in Canada, 29 in Europe, 15 in China, 10 in Japan, and seven in India. This collectively accounts for more than 40 million square feet of space. Amazon has also made substantial investments in material handling systems, including the acquisition of Kiva Systems for $775 million in 2012.  Kiva is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Amazon, which designs robots, software, workstations, and other hardware that has been used in the distribution facilities of companies such as Staples, Office Depot, and The Gap. The systems produced by Kiva are expected to be an integral part of the distribution network now being developed by Amazon. Amazon has also made major investments in cloud computing. At the same time, the company has been developing transportation capabilities to support its Amazon Fresh same-day grocery business. That’s called might of an e-commerce company!