In many parts of the world the five elements of environment Sky, Water, Earth, Air and Fire are worshipped. This in itself is an explanation of the complex phenomena called planet Earth. Till such time the mankind nurtures the environment at micro level the world will exist. The understanding of these five elements of nature will help understand the laws of nature which will help mankind to achieve greater health and happiness of the living things on the earth.

GDP measures the monetary value of final goods and services that are bought by the consumers and government produced in a country in a given period of time. A serious question which many environmentalists think of is that why GDP does not account of environmental health. Why the GDP is not reduced by soil erosion, air and water pollution and even though natural resources are depleted, their economic value or costs are excluded in the GDP calculation.

In India the natural capital is poorly categorized in GDP; natural resources are not adequately considered as economic assets; the environmental costs of depletion and degradation of natural resources are not factored in while arriving at economic growth figures. Environmental pollution, water contamination and resource depletion are omitted.  Today, we have taken the mother nature for granted because the environmental wealth does not involve transactions. In fact, letting harmful waste of chemicals into water bodies, cigarette smoking, using chemicals and fertilizers for growing soil quality, selling arms for crime, selling party drugs to the rich and celebrities, are calculated in GDP because they generate spending and they show ‘growth’ of GDP.

The business minds are not bothered about the habitat degradation and biodiversity loss which are accelerating fast. Climate disruption is getting worse; we are witnessing more frequent and damaging forest fires, floods, droughts, cyclones and tsunamis. Oceans are heating because greenhouse gases trap more energy from the sun and the oceans are absorbing more heat, resulting in an increase in sea surface temperatures and rising sea level harming the coral reefs and sea life.

Due to water and air pollutions infant health is getting disrupted. Isolating a causal relationship between pollution and health is challenging for many reasons. First, measurement error in pollution levels reduces coefficients and makes a relationship difficult to detect. There are numerous pollutants, many of which are measured infrequently or not at all. A number of baffling elements cannot be ruled out in order to interpret a relationship between environmental quality and health as causal.

Economists term mother nature as a nonexcludable or ‘public good’, thus, the benefits of environmental quality accrue to all citizens. the costs of degradation are borne by entire society other than the polluters.  The atmosphere and open oceans are common property and nobody can be excluded from using them. Think of a smoking factory chimney pouring black soot onto surrounding houses, schools, hospitals etc. Here, the polluter has an economic incentive but what about the others who suffer?

In June 2022 a portion of Deepak Nitrite’s chemical manufacturing facility in Nandesari industrial area on the outskirts of Vadodara city in Gujarat was engulfed by a major fire. Seven workers had been hospitalised after inhaling smoke, while some 700 people living in the vicinity of the factory had to be shifted to safer places.  We never think about the negative effect borne by the whole neighbourhood.

In May 2016, a blast at Probace Enterprises, a chemicals factory in Dombivli MIDC, had claimed 12 lives and left over 100 injured. The impact was so strong that window panes of Abhinav Vidyalaya, a primary and secondary school nearly 100 metres away from the site of the explosion, were scattered.

Simple prudent fact: to care for humanity, we must care for nature. During the Corona pandemic when the world was locked in house, the mother nature bloomed. The world became a quieter place in the pandemic. Cars, two wheelers and trucks were off the streets, factories closed, offices closed, silent road the air and water pollution reduced drastically. Lots of birds and animals set out from deep woods. Mother nature bloomed.

The presidents of Colombia, Costa Rica and Switzerland, joined by ministers from a dozen other countries recently launched a “High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People”, aimed at persuading governments to agree on a global goal to preserve at least 30% of the planet’s lands and oceans by 2030.

Bhutan is the world’s first carbon negative country. Mainly because of its extensive forests, covering 70% of the land, the Kingdom is able to absorb more carbon dioxide than it produces.

We live in a globalized world where countries are increasingly integrated across a variety of dimension of PESTLE—political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental. While globalization is often credited with increase in economic growth and GDP per capita, it is not without its discontents. Among these, we blindly ignore environmental issues like water and air pollution which sometimes extend beyond national borders to affect neighbouring countries. For example, few years back China’s very serious air pollution has hampered the neighbouring countries India, Pakistan, Nepal etc.  Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) degraded sea and polluted air has bothered the neighbouring countries a lot. Its natural capital is degraded.

I conclude my thought-on GDP calculation: It does not include the environmental sustainability, the standard of health, happiness, security, and mental wellbeing of an individual, a group of people, or a nation.  Any outcome from economic activity that creates negative value for society, such as air and water pollution that harms human health and other living things health. The unsustainable economic growth is diminishing the quality of life.

A measure of a nation’s quality of life includes the income and output measured by gross domestic product. This measure subtracts out the costs of negative effects related to economic growth such as crime, environmental degradation, natural resource depletion, and the costs of climate change. Genuine Progress Indicator nets the positives and negatives of economic activity to provide a more accurate measure of a nation’s quality of life than GDP alone.

Bank rate

It’s the rate charged by the central bank for lending funds to commercial banks.

Balance of Trade

 It’s the difference between the monetary value of a nation’s exports and imports over a certain time period. It is usually expressed in the unit of currency of a particular country.

Black Market

The buying and selling of goods or foreign money in an illegal way.

Black economy

It’s a section of a country’s economic activity that is derived from sources that don’t follow the country’s rules and regulations regarding commerce and trade. The activities are mostly illegal in nature.

Brown economy

It’s an economy that depends on the economic growth of the petrochemicals such as coal, petroleum and natural gas, which in production, great amounts of carbon dioxide and soot are released into the atmosphere. The economic development depends on restricted resources, the environmental pollution is severe.

Blue Economy

Blue economy is a term in economics related to the exploitation, preservation and regeneration of the marine environment. Its scope of interpretation varies among organizations. According to the World Bank, the blue economy is the “sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods, and jobs while preserving the health of ocean ecosystem.

Capital

It’s typically refers to cash or liquid assets being held or obtained for expenditures.

Cost

In production, research, retail, and accounting, a cost is the value of money that has been used up to produce something or deliver a service, and hence is not available for use anymore. In business, the cost may be one of acquisition, in which case the amount of money expended to acquire it is counted as cost.

Consumer Sovereignty

Consumer sovereignty is the economic concept that the consumer has some controlling power over goods that are produced, and the idea that the consumer is the best judge of their own welfare.

Demand  

Demand is an economic principle referring to a consumer’s desire to purchase goods and services and willingness to pay a price for a specific good or service. 

Economics

It’s the study of how people allocate scarce resources for production, distribution, and consumption, both individually and collectively.

Elasticity of Demand

It’s the responsiveness of the quantity demanded of a commodity to changes in one of the variables on which demand depends. In other words, it is the percentage change in quantity demanded divided by the percentage in one of the variables on which demand depends.

Equilibrium

In economics equilibrium is a condition or state in which economic forces are balanced. In effect, economic variables remain unchanged from their equilibrium values in the absence of external influences.

Economic Benefit

Economic benefits are defined as tangible benefits that can be measured in terms of revenue generated or money saved through the implementation of policies. An economic benefit is a benefit that we can quantify in monetary terms. Profits, net cash flow, net income, or revenue, for example, are economic benefits.

Fiscal policy

Itrefers to a government’s spending and how it affects the economy, particularly if spending levels change. Fiscal policy also refers to the tax policies of a government to influence economic conditions. It drives the policy actions of the Government. Budget, tax, subsidies, expenditure etc. form part of the fiscal policy.

GDP

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services.  

Golden Economy

The term describes an ideal state for an economic system. In this perfect state, there is full employment, economic stability, and stable growth. It is also called sunshine economy. Emphasis is laid on energy sector. Sunshine Economy depend on non-fossil energy such as wind energy, solar energy, water, biomass energy, geothermal energy, marine energy etc. as basic energy supply to encourage distribution of facilities, to improve the energy structure.

Government spending

It refers to money spent by the public sector on the acquisition of goods and provision of services such as education, healthcare, social protection; the important areas being social welfare and defence.

Grey Market

It’s an unofficial market in goods that have not been obtained from an official supplier.

Grey Economy

The informal economy is also known to be the grey economy. This is an economy that is a diversified set of economic activities, enterprises, jobs, and workers that are not regulated or protected by the state. The grey economy helps to establish self-employment in small, unregistered enterprises. It has been expanded to include wage employment in unprotected jobs.

Green Economy

It’s a three-dimensional focus in sustaining and advancing economic, environmental and social wellbeing, to increase GDP and reduce poverty. A green economy is an economy that aims at reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities, and that aims for sustainable development without degrading the environment. It is closely related with ecological economics, but has a more politically applied focus.

Incentives

In economics, incentives are what encourage an individual to act in a certain way. In other words, how consumers and businesses respond to market signals such as prices and financial benefits.

Inflation

Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.

Law of demand

It states that quantity purchased varies inversely with price. In other words, the higher the price, the lower the quantity demanded.

Market

It’s a place where the exchange of goods and services takes place as a result of buyers and sellers being in contact with one another, either directly or through mediating agents or institutions.

Money

It’s a medium of exchange; it allows people to obtain what they need to live. Bartering was one way that people exchanged goods for other goods before money was created. Money has worth because for most people it represents something valuable. The units of measurement are dollars or another currency, with no time dimension.

Market capitalization

It’s the aggregate valuation of the company based on its current share price and the total number of outstanding stocks. It is calculated by multiplying the current market price of the company’s share with the total outstanding shares of the company.

Marginal utility

It refers to the amount of satisfaction a consumer gets by consuming a good or service. Marginal utility can be used by economists to measure how much of a good or service a consumer would buy in a given period of time.

Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with performance, structure, behaviour, and decision-making of an economy as a whole; for example using interest rates, taxes, and government spending to regulate an economy’s growth and stability. This includes regional, national, and global economies.

Microeconomics

It’s a branch of mainstream economics that studies the behaviour of individuals and firms in making decisions regarding the allocation of scarce resources and the interactions among these individuals and firms.

Monopoly

It’s a market situation where there is a single seller in the market. In conventional economic analysis, the monopoly case is taken as the polar opposite of perfect competition. By definition, the demand curve facing the monopolist is the industry demand curve which is downward sloping.

Micro Economics

Microeconomics is the study of decisions made by people and businesses regarding the allocation of resources, and prices.

Macro Economics

Macroeconomics focuses on the performance of economies; changes in economic output, inflation, interest and foreign exchange rates, and the balance of payments. 

Opportunity cost

What a business firm misses out on when selecting one option over another. It’s a way to quantify the benefits and risks of each option, leading to more profitable decision-making overall.

Oligopoly

An oligopoly is a market characterized by a small number of firms who realize they are interdependent in their pricing and output policies. The number of firms is small enough to give each firm some market power.

Optimization

It’s the process of making a trading system more effective by adjusting the variables used for technical analysis. A trading system can be optimized by reducing certain transaction costs or risks, or by targeting assets with greater expected returns.

Purple Economy

Purple Economy takes into account the ethnic, cultural, and sociological aspects of the place they operate in. Concepts such as racial equality, cultural transmission, and economic anthropology are the core tenets of this principle which draws from the ideas of both politics and capitalism. It is about looking beyond the economic value of cultural outputs to include the cultural dimension of any asset or service. Purple economy is part of a wider ethical approach.

Repo Rate

It’s the rate at which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lends money to commercial banks or financial institutions in India against government securities. Repo Rate in 2022 is 4.40%

Recession

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending.

Red Economy

It’s related to the economy that is ruled by a government with style of communism.

Supply

 In economics, supply is the amount of a resource that firms, producers, labourers, providers of financial assets, or other economic agents are willing and able to provide to the marketplace or to an individual. Supply can be in produced goods, labour time, raw materials, or any other scarce or valuable object.

Scarcity

The gap between limited resources and theoretically limitless wants.

Sovereign bond

It’s a debt security issued by a national government to raise money for financing government programs, paying down old debt, paying interest on current debt, and any other government spending needs. Sovereign bonds can be denominated in a foreign currency or the government’s domestic currency.

Silver Economy

Silver economy is the system and structure of production, distribution and consumption of goods and services aimed at using the purchasing potential of older and ageing people and satisfying their needs, wants and consumption for a well living and health needs. All strategies are driven to face new challenges related to an ageing population (geriatrics), especially regarding technology services for wellbeing and health monitoring such as robotic assistance, electrical mobility, or health sports, including health tourism and green care.

Time value of money

It’s the concept that a sum of money is worth more now than the same sum will be at a future date due to its earnings potential in the short-term.

Unemployment

It’s a term referring to individuals who are employable and actively seeking a job but are unable to find a job. Included in this group are those people in the workforce who are working but do not have an appropriate job.

White economy

Focuses on Digital Economy and how it changed business and trading for start-ups and entrepreneurs via digital.

Gold: It is considered the most important of all stocks even today; its store value keeps increasing. It is the most important components of the global economy since 1945. Most often gold’s value remains fairly constant and increases over time. It is therefore used as an ideal hedge against (boundary) inflation. Many investors have never seriously considered gold to be a long-term investment, but the topic of investing in gold did come to the forefront of during the 2008–2009 recessions. People invest in gold because despite high inflation, its value does not depreciate. Gold is also a safe asset. Remember this point always, that increasing gold prices are a traditional indicator of a recession or a downturn in an economy. People are very scared when it comes to the pricing of gold; they get worried that if price of gold falls, they might lose because the value of other investments may also go down in the future. Indians traditionally hold the yellow metal in very high esteem; they hoard lot of gold for the same reason. And, why not, gold saving has helped people to get their children married, their education, clearing healthcare bills etc.

US Dollar: The strongest currency in the world is this currency. The virtual strength of the U.S. economy supports the value of its currency. It is the reason the dollar is the most powerful currency. Around $580 billion in U.S. bills (bank notes) are used outside the country. That’s 65 percent of all dollars. That includes 75 percent of $100 bills, 55 percent of $50 bills, and 60 percent of $20 bills. Most of these bills are in the former Soviet Union countries and in Latin America. They are often used as hard currency in day-to-day transactions. More than one-third of the world’s GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) comes from countries that peg (bringing up to scale) their currencies to the dollar. That includes countries that have adopted the U.S. dollar as their own; they are Ecuador, East Timor, El Salvador, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Turks and Caicos, British Virgin Islands, Zimbabwe. Another 89 keep their currency in a tight trading range relative to the dollar. In the foreign exchange market the dollar rules. Ninety percent of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. The dollar is just one of the world’s 185 currencies according to the International Standards Organization List. But most of these currencies are only used inside their own countries. Theoretically, any one of them could replace the dollar as the world’s currency. But they won’t because they aren’t as widely traded. The chart below shows the 10 most traded currencies in 2018.

1. US dollar (USD)
2. Euro (EUR)
3. Japanese yen (JPY)
4. Pound sterling (GBP)
5. Australian dollar (AUD)
6. Canadian dollar (CAD)
7. Swiss franc (CHF)
8. Chinese renminbi (CNH)
9. Swedish krona (SEK)
10. New Zealand dollar (NZD)

Most of the trade in oil is invoiced in US Dollar. Whenever India buys oil from Iran, natural gas from Russia and electronics from China, we do not pay them in Rial, Rouble or Yuan, we pay them in Dollars. Similarly, when India sells leather to Australia, they pay us in Dollars. Dollar Rupee exchange rate is thus very important for both imports and export health of a country. If it goes high, consumers suffer, it goes low exporters suffer.

Oil Prices:  Oil prices are higher because of high demand and low supply; it depends upon OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) quotas, or a drop in the dollar’s value. India is a heavy importer of oil and it is the most important energy resource. An increase in the global oil prices hurts the Rupee and the Indian economy. Demand for oil and gas follow a predictable seasonal swing. Demand rises in the spring and summer due to increased driving for summer vacations. Demand drops in the autumn and winter. Low supply occurs when war or natural disaster curtail exports from oil-producing countries. Traders often bid up prices when they hear of impending disasters or the threat of war. Oil prices decline once production resumes. When commodities future traders anticipate increased demand, they usually start bidding oil prices higher in January or February. Around 70 percent of gas prices are based on oil prices. U.S plays a major role in fixing oil prices.

Stocks (Share market): Though it is called stock market or equity market and is primarily known for trading shares/equities, other financial securities – like exchange traded funds (ETF), corporate bonds and derivatives based on stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds which are also traded on the stock markets. When the economy is doing well or is expected to do well, the share prices of stocks in that country rise, and when the economy is doing badly, their value drops. India’s individual stock ownership rate is quite low; this adds an extra layer of risk to the Indian stock markets that are affected by global shocks. An important aspect to note is that stock markets are determined by the other three factors noted above: gold, dollar and oil prices. India is an odd economy. It’s highly included with the global economy but does not have enough leverage to affect it in any way. It is hence vulnerable to external shocks a lot, things that the government cannot control.

Connection between Gold, Oil Prices, Dollar and Stock Market: Now coming to the original question, what is the relationship between these four assets? They react to each other in a variety of ways. If the future expectations of the global economy are bad, people run to the safety of the US Dollar and Gold and sell stocks. The price of gold rises, the value of dollar rises against the Rupee. FII’s (foreign institutional investors) and FDI’s pull money out of the Indian stock market causing it to decline. When the price of dollar rises, oil prices increase for India. This puts strain on the economy as inflation increases. Because of high inflation people invest more in gold and less in stocks causing the stock markets to fall. When the price of oil decreases, energy costs reduce. This will reduce the costs of energy, we will spend less Dollars buying oil and the Rupee strengthens. When the price of dollar goes down, price of oil goes down reducing energy company shares costs.

There are many other permutations and combinations to note. Gold and oil are positively related. A rise in oil prices is an indication of bad times and gold prices rise correspondingly. Gold and stocks are negatively correlated. If stocks go up, gold goes down and vice versa. These effects are collective. If we break down the stock market into individual stocks, they react differently to change in oil and gold prices. An increase in oil prices causes the energy stocks to rise because of higher expected profits, an increase in gold prices will cause Gold ETF’s and banking stocks to rise but other stocks might fall or remain stable. An increase in the value of the dollar causes IT stocks to rise because their revenue comes in Dollars but cause energy stocks to fall.

It is of no use to study the price of these assets in isolation as they heavily depend on the prevailing macroeconomic conditions. For example, when the business cycle is positive i.e. the GDP is rising, stocks rise, but, gold falls. If inflation is rising along with GDP, then both gold and stocks rise, stocks rise on FDI infusion and gold rises because of inflation. Add an external change in oil and this relationship becomes even complex. Add U.S Dollar and we have got ourselves in a commotion. In conclusion, no one can say for certainty how one or the other price might react to a change in the other. Modern financial markets function on volatile conditions. Because of this very uncertainty, they trade based on expectations of how prices might react.

Warren Buffett

While studying his graduate studies at Columbia, Warren Buffett was the only student ever to earn an A+ in one of Graham’s classes. But, both Ben Graham and Warren’s father advised him not to work on Wall Street after he graduated. Warren Buffett was so determined to start his work soon after graduation that he offered to work for the Benjamin Graham’s partnership for free. Ben turned him down. He preferred to hold his spots for Jews who were not hired at Gentle/goof firms at the time. Warren was crushed. Returning home, he took a job at his father’s brokerage house.

Graham, who is well known as Warren Buffett’s mentor, learnt his investment lessons with many obscurities; his losses in the stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent bear market during the Great Depression led Graham to sharpen his investment techniques. These techniques sought to profit in stocks while minimizing downside risks. He did this by buying shares of companies whose shares traded far below the companies’ liquidation value. In simple terms, his goal was to buy a dollar’s worth of assets for 50 cents, and he did that very well, both in theory and in practice. There were two general ways that Graham used to do this. The first method was the use of market psychology; that is, using the fear and greed of the market to earn profits and the second was to invest by the numbers.

Like his mentor, Warren Buffett restricts himself to businesses he can fairly understand and analyze. Investment success is not a matter of how much you know but rather how sensibly you define what you know and what you don’t know. Buffett considers this wisdom of understanding for the operating business. It is a prerequisite for a feasible forecast of future business performance. After all, if you don’t understand the business, how can you project performance? Buffett’s each business beliefs support the goal of producing a robust projection. First, analyze the business, not the market or the economy or investor sentiment. Next, look for a consistent operating history. Finally, use that data to ascertain whether the business has positive long-term prospects or not.

Warren Buffett has amassed a personal multibillion dollar fortune mainly through investing in stocks and buying companies through Berkshire Hathaway. Shareholders in Berkshire Hathaway who invested $10,000 in the company in 1965 are above the $50 million mark today. Now in his 80s, Warren Buffett has yet to write a single book, but among investment professionals and the investing public, there is no more respected voice.

His advice to the world of investors is very straightforward “be wise while investing but don’t fall in love with your stocks” In one of his interviews on CNBC which lasted for about 3 hours he shared his wisdom with the world which is worth million dollars. The excerpts are as follows:

1. Don’t let world events affect your investments

Warren Buffett says even if you realize a big war is about to take place and is unavoidable, still buy stocks. You’re going to invest your money in something over time. One thing you can be sure of is if a war broke, the value of money would go down. … That happens virtually in every war. The last thing anybody should do is hold money during a war; because after the war you might want to own a farm, you might want to own an apartment house, you might want to own securities. By holding you money without investing it somewhere, you are simply declining its growth. During World War II the stock market advanced. The stock market will have its ups and downs as it is, but eventually it is going to advance some time.

2. Don’t get affected when your stocks go down

Warren Buffett only likes to buy stocks for a lot less than he thinks they are really worth, this suggests you can get a bargain or two—although, as always, there is no guarantee. Instead when your stocks go down, buy more. Some day they have to be revived. Precision in stocks is just not possible. Have patience; give some time to your investment. Get associated with your stocks by watching their movement.

3. You don’t have to be an expert

The stock market offers you so many opportunities to invest in thousands and thousands of different businesses. You don’t have to be an authority on every one of them. You don’t need to be an expert on 10 percent of them even. You just have to have some conviction that a given company or a group of companies are likely to make more money 5, 10 or 20 years down the line from now on. Read up, gather information, discuss with your friends, some professional and that is not so difficult to make a decision. Warren Buffett advices to be watchful and use common sense; and if you have no expertise at all, Warren Buffett recommends a low-cost index fund. Keeping costs to a minimum is enormously important in investing. If you’re in effect paying out 1 or 2 percent annually of your portfolio, that’s a big tax that you don’t have to pay.

4. Don’t go for immediate gratification of quick profits  

• Generally speaking, everyone is interested in making a quick profit and there’s no law against making quick profits. But while investing one needs to be wise; invest in stocks of companies which are there to stay, not the ones who are established for cheating investors. Grow with the company you have invested in. Don’t make money by selling the company. … The answer isn’t to sell the company. The answer is to keep running the company well. Take pride in your stocks; see the growth of the companies, therefore, understand its revenue, expenses, growth potential, assets, liabilities, and a host of other information.

5. Bulls markets are fun for little time

Warren Buffett warns against the whimsical and irrational bullish market behavior of stock market. Prices in the bullish face make an investor “behave irrationally as well” he says. He also urges nervous or beginners in investment against going into stocks at a time of extreme exuberance and becoming disillusioned when paper losses occur. A Bull market is when everything in the economy is great, people are finding jobs, gross domestic products (GDP) is growing, and stocks are rising. Things are just plain rosy! Picking stocks during a bullish phase is easier because everything is going up. Bull markets cannot last forever though, and sometimes they can lead to dangerous situations – especially when stocks become overrated. If a person is optimistic and believes that stocks will go up, he or she is called a “bull” and is said to have a “bullish outlook”.

The remedy to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off and elevated. Warren Buffett’s bottom line fundamental advice: “Ignore the gossip, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm.” He also advises investors forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time.

Some of the illustrative investments that fuelled Warren Buffett’s (Berkshire Hathaway) fortune include the kinds of companies that he called ‘inevitables’ they are cash generative brands such as Gillette, Coca Cola and American Express. In the case of American Express, Berkshire first bought its shares in the company in 1964, adding weight to one of the Sage’s famous observations; in his words “our favorite holding period is forever.”