We all have some form of unconscious bias. It is part of what makes us human. But when we observe our understanding of this, we get blinded to our own nurtured biases. It is not easy for us to accept about our biases. It is like a blind spot. Most people have no idea of how biased they actually are. But they feel that most people around them are more biased than they themselves are.

We all fail to notice our own cognitive biases. The fact is we all may be drawn to a particular style or way of working without being aware of it. For instance, we tend to get friendly with people who match our own ways of seeing the world and are unaware we are doing so. It would be incorrect to say that we would find an unbiased person easily….colour, class, race, gender, nepotism all are biases which are going on and on because of bias blind spot. We are unaware of our own actual degree of bias. The more we feel that we are less biased than others, we are less clear of our own understanding.      

This is a typical example of bias blind spot; in the US most citizens argue about gun control on one side, people are convinced that more guns leads to more violence. On the other side, people buy guns to protect themselves because they are convinced that they are more likely to be harmed if they don’t have guns, so they buy and store guns. Don’t we always make decisions and interpret it with data to justify? We see patterns based on our past experiences, and connect the dots at almost innate level.

This is another good example – when physicians receive gifts from pharmaceutical companies, they tell others that the gifts do not affect their decisions about what medicine to prescribe because they have no memory of the gifts biasing their prescriptions. Nevertheless, if you ask them whether a gift might unconsciously bias the decisions of other physicians, most will agree that other physicians are unconsciously biased by the gifts, while continuing to believe that their own decisions are not.

Our 5 senses supply us with incredible amounts of data constantly. It is unfeasible for the human brain to process all information received as it is too huge. Thus, to make our lives easier, our brains are programmed to take short cuts when interpreting data. We subconsciously develop set of rules that we plug into unconsciously that allow us to make immediate decisions and judgements. We develop our biases through genetics, through education, through the work that we do, through the people we interact with, the culture we grow up in, our childhood experience, our friends, our teachers, the way we brought up etc. The best part is that our biases don’t always serve to be right. In the modern world our inherent biases make our lives complicated. Our blind spots are visible to others but we don’t see them.

The bias blind spot can be extremely problematic, when we operate from within our blind spot; we are more likely to reject the input of others including the experts in a particular area.

In 1958, Mao Zedong wanted to rapidly industrialize China. He banned all private holdings and created communes where peasants who no longer owned their own land would live together in a field and would be forced to work steel instead of farming. Each farm would be given a steel furnace and often every peasant in the commune was forced to work long hours. Mao also tried to improve farming through a number of ill-advised techniques set forth by Trofim Lysenko. The techniques decreased grain production but local leaders were under so much pressure that they actually falsely reported large increases in grain production in order to please their superiors.

Unfortunately, these numbers were used to determine how much grain was sent to the capital to be used for export, the false numbers meant little if any grain was left to feed the peasants. These and other polices of the Great Leap Forward are believed to be responsible for the Chinese Famine which resulted in the deaths of millions of Chinese. 30 to 40% of all houses were also destroyed as part of the Great Leap Forward as the materials were needed for their efforts to industrialize. Even as Mao knew his people were starving, he continued to export grain in order to save face and some even claim he knew millions would die through his program but he thought it was a worthwhile sacrifice. The economy also failed as the period of the Great Leap (1958 – 1961) was the only time between 1953 and 1973 that the economy regressed.

Who was the biggest mass murderer in the history of the world? Most people probably assume that the answer is Adolf Hitler, architect of the Holocaust. Others might guess Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, who may indeed have managed to kill even more innocent people than Hitler did, but both Hitler and Stalin were outdone by Mao Zedong. His Great Leap Forward policy led to the deaths of up to 45 million people, easily making it the biggest episode of mass murder ever recorded. The fact is communists have a bias blind spot in their basic thinking; the rule by communist parties leads to totalitarianism, political repression, restrictions of human rights, poor economic performance and cultural and artistic censorship. If not checked in time, bias blind spot can get dangerous beyond control of any kind.

Its 100 years today since the World War I broke on 28^th June 1914. I strongly believe all wars defies logic.  Sociologists and psychologists can tell us many of the reasons for war, but when we see the results of war its tragic effects only tell us that war is unreasonable and illogical. Yet it is still unavoidable. Why? What is it in mankind that causes us to war?

The 1^st World war began on a small note when Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. This seemingly small conflict between two countries spread rapidly: soon, Germany, Russia, Great Britain and France were all drawn into the war, largely because they were involved in treaties that obligated them to defend certain other nations. Western and eastern fronts quickly opened along the borders of Germany and Austria-Hungary. The war drew in all the world’s economic great powers which were assembled in two opposing alliances.

World War I killed more people – more than 9 million soldiers, sailors, and flyers and another 5 million civilians. It involved 28 countries, and cost $ 186 billion in direct costs and another $151 billion in indirect costs. It became a very costly afire. It was the first war to use airplanes, tanks, long range artillery, submarines, and poison gas. It left at least 7 million men permanently disabled. World War I probably had more far-reaching consequences than any other proceeding war. Politically, it resulted in the downfall of four monarchies; Russia in 1917, Austria-Hungary and Germany in 1918, and Turkey in 1922. It contributed to the Bolshevik rise to power in Russia in 1917 and the triumph of fascism in Italy in 1922. It ignited colonial revolts in the Middle East and in Southeast Asia.

The war severely disturbed the European economies and allowed the United States to become the world’s leading creditor and industrial power. The war also brought vast social consequences, including the mass murder of Armenians in Turkey and an influenza epidemic that killed over 25 million people worldwide.

Many socio-economic events reveal the utter unpredictability of the future. At the dawn of the 20th century, most Europeans looked forward to a future of peace and prosperity. Europe has not fought a major war for 100 years because their belief in human progress was shattered by World War I, a war few wanted and few unnecessarily got drawn into it. At any point during the five weeks leading up to the outbreak of fighting the conflict might have been averted. World War I was a product of miscalculation, misunderstanding, and miscommunication.

No one anticipated a war of unimagined magnitude or duration of World War I. At first the armies relied on outdated methods of communication, such as carrier pigeons. The great powers mobilized more than a million horses. But by the time the conflict was over, tanks, submarines, airplane-dropped bombs, machine guns, and poison gas had transformed the nature of modern warfare. In 1918, the Germans fired shells containing both tear gas and lethal chlorine. The tear gas forced the British to remove their gas masks; the chlorine then scarred their faces and killed them.

Conflicts between two nations is ought to take place on various issues; but is war the solution to it? There is little difference between human and animal reaction to war: animals have a strong instinct to fight and defend their territory, humans are no different. What really separates humans from animals is the scale of the fights. The human’s fights are terrifying and blood-spattered. World War I proved that if disputes are to be settled only by war, then human kind will not survive and the whole world will vanish.  – Let’s avoid a third world war.

War is not something that any sane person wants to be involved in. World War 2 is a great example: Hitler was trying to take over the world eventually by committing genocide. He needed to be stopped. Genocide means the systematic destruction of all or part of a racial, ethnic, religious or national group by Killing members of the group. You cannot have someone trying to take over the world, especially in such a gory manner.

Unfortunately war is necessary in some cases. In several cases, the only way to stop certain pretense is through war. Think, if certain rulers hadn’t been deposed through war efforts, where would the world be? Unfortunately there are people and governments that will not change through peaceful talks and beneficial agreements.

Wars often start from silly, petty arguments. It’s proved sometimes war is the outcome of national ego.

Some sociologists feel education is the answer to stop war. They say that if everyone had the best education possible then war, racism and all other social problems would give way to a worldwide peace. But if you look at people who opted for war were most educated, then what happened? Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Adolf Eichmann, Joseph Goebbels, Idi Amin, Pol Pot, Mao Tse Tung, Sadam Hussein, Slobodan Milosevic and many others were educated people. Does knowledge breed ego in people? Today, knowledge is given priority in all nations but still the number of wars and their severity has not reduced.

Historically, men and nations attempt to secure peace through political alliances. But, even these have not been able to offer lasting peace. In an address to the United States Senate in 1919, President Woodrow Wilson said, “The League of Nations is the only hope of mankind.” World War I was supposed to have been “The war to end all wars“. But it proved wrong. World War II began only 20 years later.  Thousands of treaties have been made and disbanded.  Our intensions of peace are fanciful, short-lived and fragile; any number of treaties may be formed for peace, but wars are not prevented. It is futile to put all our hope in political alliances.  War cannot create peace and peace cannot create war. It is therefore left to us, to the people of this world whether we want war or peace.

Lastly, some social scientists have envisaged World War III (WWIII, WW3 or the Third World War) to describe a worldwide conflict following World War II. The anticipated dates for the war are from September 1, 2029 – November 11, 2036. The war will break everywhere except Antarctica and most of Africa. The elements for the war would hypothetically be such as Syrian – Turkish border clashes, China’s aggression due to various reasons, same with Russia, economic collapse in word, termination of United Nations, Korea will reunite under democratic government, NATO will occupy the Middle East, dissolution of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization). SCO is a Eurasian political, economic and military organization which was founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Post war all SCO governments will reconstruct, Palestine will officially gain independence from Israel.

The World War III will result into reinstating of United Nations. China and Russia will have democracy. Both countries’ some province will enjoy democracy while some province will merge with neighborhood countries.

Can World War III be averted? Looking at the world scenario today, possibilities of it cannot be disputed.  But, let us hope that the hypothesis of World War III remains an illusion perpetually.

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