The Thucydides Trap describes the high risk of war when a rising power threatens to displace a dominant ruling power. This concept is  named after the Greek historian Thucydides who noted the dynamics between Athens and Sparta leading to the Peloponnesian War.

Thucydides war was further popularized by political scientist Graham T. Allison, suggesting the fear of the rising power by the established nation, coupled with the challenger’s growing confidence, often leads to conflict, though Allison aims to help manage this dynamic (currently U.S.-China) to avoid war through understanding and diplomacy.

The origin of the Thucydides’ trap started in situation where rising power Athens challenged the status of an established, ruling power  Sparta. The war was called Peloponnesian War, The Peloponnesian War was fought in the Eastern Mediterranean between the Athenian-led Delian League and the Spartan-led Peloponnesian League from 431 to 404 BC for domination over Ancient Greece. Thucydides approached ethics with scepticism, viewing morality as shaped by one’s environment rather than universal truths. Thucydides’ observations during the Peloponnesian War led him to develop political realism, the theory that political behaviour is fundamentally driven by fear of war and self-interest.

In the world wars happen due to complex, overlying reasons like disputes over resources such as land, oil, power struggles, political control, influence, and identity clashes  due to religion, nationalism, ideology, often fuelled by economic inequality, historical grievances, resource scarcity exacerbated by climate change, or a breakdown in diplomacy, leading groups to use organized violence when peaceful resolution fails. For example, Pakistan’s frequent conflicts with India stem mainly from the unresolved Kashmir dispute since 1947, leading to wars and ongoing border clashes, fuelled by religious/communal tensions and strategic interests, alongside internal instability and support for militant groups impacting regional security, especially with neighbours like Afghanistan, creating a cycle of conflict. The violent 1947 split by British created a deep-seated hostility between India and Pakistan leading to religious divide between  Hindu-Muslim, and a legacy of distrust.

Wars, often arising from economic, territorial, religious, or political reasons, can leave countries war-torn, requiring decades for rebuilding infrastructure and economic reconstruction. Rebuilding nations after war is indeed a daunting task, involving immense challenges across social, economic, political, and infrastructural domains. It requires comprehensive, long-term strategies and often international cooperation to establish lasting peace and stability.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, beginning in 2022, it exemplifies the complexities of modern warfare, including unexpected resistance, strategic and logistic challenges, and significant civilian impact. On February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation began a military invasion of Ukraine, escalating a conflict that had been simmering since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

Global war statistics reveal a diversity of conflicts, from Myanmar’s long-standing civil war to the ongoing drug war in Mexico, each with unique causes and consequences.

Myanmar’s civil war stems from the military’s 2021 coup, overthrowing a democratically elected government and triggering widespread armed resistance by pro-democracy forces and ethnic groups against the ruling junta, building on decades of ethnic conflict and military dominance over civilian rule. The core reasons are the military’s desire to retain power, suppression of democratic movements, and long-standing ethnic grievances, all exacerbated by the military’s violent crackdown on peaceful protests after the coup.

The Mexican drug war is an ongoing lopsided armed conflict between the Mexican government and various drug trafficking syndicates. When the Mexican military intervened in 2006, the government’s main objective was to reduce drug-related violence. This conflict has resulted in widespread violence, including mass killings and brutal tactics employed by the cartels, such as execution-style murders and the use of mass graves. The conflict known as the Mexican Drug War is still very much ongoing as an intense armed struggle between the Mexican government and powerful drug cartels, despite various government initiatives and claims of ending the “war,” with cartels like the Sinaloa Cartel remaining dominant players in the multi-billion-dollar drug trade, driving violence and instability.

The conflict between Israel and Palestine is a long-running, complex dispute over land and self-determination with historical roots stretching back over a century. It encompasses a series of wars, numerous military operations, and ongoing political conflict, most notably the current Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The Palestinians seek to establish their own independent state in at least one part of historic Palestine. Israeli defence of its own borders, control over the West Bank, the Egyptian-Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip, and Palestinian internal politics currently make the Palestinians’ goal out of reach. The Israeli–Palestinian conflict is an ongoing military and political conflict about land and self-determination within the territory of the former Mandatory Palestine.

Civilization Identity will be increasingly important in the future, and the world will be shaped in large measure by the interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. These include Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African civilization.

The Soviet-Afghan war and the First Gulf War as the emergence of civilization wars. Huntington interprets the Afghan War as a civilization war because it was the first successful resistance to a foreign power, which boosted the self-confidence, and power of many fighters in the Islamic world says American political scientist Samuel Huntington.

Cold Wars are increasingly appearing at these civilizational divisions. Wars such as those following the breakup of Yugoslavia, in Chechnya, and between India and Pakistan were cited as evidence of inter-civilizational conflict.

Impact of clash of civilization on business

According to a study by the Harvard Business Review, a staggering 70% of international ventures fail due to cultural differences. This alarming statistic underscores the critical need for mastering cross-cultural communication. Because human societies are complex systems, some common factors that may contribute to their decline are economic, environmental, demographic, social and cultural. These factors may cascade into another and build up to the point that could overwhelm any mechanisms that would otherwise maintain stability.

Culture clash in the workplace refers to the conflict that arises when different employee backgrounds, beliefs, and behaviours collide. This can manifest in various ways, including: miscommunication, diverse communication styles can lead to misunderstandings and frustration. Also, cultural clashes disrupt businesses.

Increased Trade Costs and Reduced Flows

Cultural differences act as a significant, and in the post-Cold War era, potentially increasing barrier to international trade. Countries belonging to different civilizations tend to trade less with each other. This is due to higher transaction costs, a lack of trust, and differing business norms which complicate negotiations and collaboration.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Risks

Businesses investing overseas face “cultural risks” in regions with vastly different languages, religious beliefs, legal origins, and values. These risks can lead to potential operational challenges, social tensions, and the need for significant adaptation to local cultural norms, which can be costly and difficult to manage.

Geopolitical Conflict and Instability

The theory posits that conflicts will primarily occur along “fault lines” between civilizations. This increases the risk of regional instability, proxy conflicts, and “tit-for-tat” sanctions (e.g., in trade and finance) which can disrupt global supply chains, catch businesses in the middle of political disputes, and increase compliance costs.

Challenges in Mergers and International Operations

Within organizations, a clash of corporate cultures, often exacerbated by different national or regional operating styles, can lead to communication breakdowns, demotivation, resistance to change, and a lack of cohesion in teams. This makes successfully integrating acquired companies or managing diverse global operations a major challenge.

Reinforced Economic Regionalism

The theory suggests that successful economic regionalism often succeeds only when it is rooted in a common civilization. This trend toward stronger intra-regional trade blocs (e.g., in Europe, East Asia, North America) could lead to the marginalization of businesses from outside those blocs, making cross-regional expansion more difficult.

Weaponization of Trade and Finance

The intensification of civilizational competition can lead to the “weaponization” of economic tools, such as trade tariffs, sanctions, and restrictions on technology transfers, in “nationally sensitive” domains for example,  semiconductors, clean energy. This environment of economic warfare forces businesses to navigate a complex, fragmented international system.

I attended a lecture by Dr. Uday Nirgudkar at Founder’s Day of Maratha Mandir on 4^th March 2024. Nirgudkar is the Group Editor of Marathi News Channel Lokmat 18 on 4^th April 2024, he came as Chief Guest for our Founder Day celebration. While talking about himself he informed the audience that his topic for PhD was Psephology. Dr. Nirgudkar enlightened the audience in his 90 minutes speech about how 2047 would be. He spoke about the milestones of Indian economy from 1947 and a few futuristic milestones till 2047 completing a century of Independent India. The term psephology stayed in my mind and therefore I am writing this article.

Psephology is a branch of political science that deals with the scientific analysis of elections or polls. Psephologist is a Political Researcher. The profile of psephologists and pollsters are alike. Psephologists are in demand during elections to predict the voter’s psychology.

Recently, the Chief election commissioner, Rajiv Kumar announced the Lok Sabha elections 2024 dates. The elections will occur in 7 phases, starting on 19 April and ending on 1 June. The Lok Sabha elections 2024 results will be declared on 4 June.

Understanding political ideas, ideologies, institutions, policies, processes, and behaviour, as well as groups, classes, government, diplomacy, law, strategy, and war are areas very important for a psephologist’s understanding. He studies how people will vote in elections.

Psephologists are the ones who use their talents to calculate the results of “exit polls” in any democratically held election and take a final call on which party would win. Some of the famous psephologists in India are Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Kishor, Dr. Nirgudkar, G.V.L. Narsimha Rao, Prannoy Roy, Ranjit Chib etc.

There is a big difference between opinion polls and exit polls. The results continue to keep swinging during the opinion polls, with many factors at play. But in the case of exit polls, the voting pattern should be well captured. However, if we look at the exit polls across various elections so far, they may show the trend somewhat closely, but they fail to capture the mood in terms of vote share, seats in various regions, and the overall tally for various parties.

Polling, however, is not an exact science. People get swayed by opinions of others. In India in villages the Sarpanch gives his views about which party might help the villagers for beratement; in fact, it’s the rural India which sincerely votes. Urban apathy towards voting is very dangerous. In all elections in urban areas, we see a low voting percentage. Sluggishness, lack of interest, and lack of awareness are some reasons why the urban youth shirk from voting.

Since only a small sample of the population are interviewed, final figures are always subject to a margin of error. The sampling method cannot produce exact figures like those found in the science laboratory. People of a community cannot be subjected to precise analytical measurements. Exactly what accounts for an opinion held by a person or for his personality cannot be secluded and studied as precisely as the elements which make up an opinion poll. 

Prashant Kishor is one of the renowned psephologists known to have played an instrumental role in strategizing in Narendra Modi’s victory in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls. Kishor is also known for guiding JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar to win 2015 assembly poll. Kishor is often credited with reforming the political scenario in the country. He can come up with ideas for the political parties’ agendas. Strategies for fulfilling the agendas, a very strong desire to succeed, reasoning ability. He thinks out of the box. He has an eye for detailing, clear understanding of voters’ mindset to analyse and synthesis information and data. Psephology can be pursued by those who are good in political science and statistics. There are very few universities that teach the program specifically.

Scope:  Psephology is the term derived from the Greek term “Psephos” which means pebble, which the Greeks used as ballots and “Logy” denotes a field of study or academic discipline. The demand for psephologists has raised among various media groups. They are usually contracted by one media group or the other to write relevant columns and articles pertaining to political science or sociology. They are also hired by Political Parties or can also work as freelancers. Currently with elections being organized in every state regularly, psephologists are in demand. Research agencies and institutions also employ psephologists for researching past or historic electoral data. This is critical to establish facts and determine the ‘swing’ and preferences of a certain population.

India doesn’t have an actual post called ‘psephologist’. However, some major parties have in-house analysts who can be called psephologists. Several accomplished media editors, political analysts, and marketing research scientists work as psephologists. But in future, the psephologists will be immense demand. The problem is hardly any Universities teach Psephology as a subject. State Universities must develop a board of studies for preparing a separate syllabus for Psephology.

One of the famous English Novelist George Orwell’s quotes “Who controls the past, controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” This quote is so apt in case of Indian History.

History is the study of the past which is formed on collective memory. Family history is the story of who we are, where we come from, it helps us compare our present and future possibly to understand where we are headed. Nothing is more mind boggling than learning and discovering more about our ancestors, celebrating family traditions, embracing our culture, and understanding our roots.

Our national history makes us more resilient because it is essential for all of us in understanding ourselves and the world around us. There is a history of every field and topic; from medicine, music, art, education, architecture, fashion, food, religion and many more facets of life. To know and understand history is absolutely necessary, even though the results of historical study are not as visible as they are expected to be.  

Sri Adrishya Kadasiddeshwar Swami of Kaneri Mutt while speaking in Vishwa Hindu Parishad has said that history textbooks across the country did not contain the actual account of Indian history and he has urged the Union and State governments to change history books to reflect on Indian values and record the right kind of history.

Many historians say it’s a myth that India’s freedom struggle was non-violent. India’s founding story deliberates upon an unrealistic national philosophy simply for political ideology. This unrealistic story has wavered our national spirit.

Historians have manipulated the very facts; hard facts are brushed under the carpet. Wrong people are made our national heroes while real heroes are not given their due credit in our history text books. India represents a core Asian tradition as well as one of the oldest strands in the fabric of world civilization. Indian religions, philosophies, art, literature, and social systems have played a fundamental role in defining the human heritage, and they merit a proper discussion in a world history survey. Why was our rich heritage brushed aside? 

I watched Arnab Goswami’s discussion with Sanjeev Sanyal on Republic Television on 8^th Jan 2023. Sanyal is an Indian economist and a famous historian. He is a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, and has helped prepare six editions of the Economic Survey of India starting in 2017.  Arnab and Sanjeev Sanyal were discussing gist of Sanyal’s recent book “Revolutionaries” published by Harper Collins.                   

He writes in his book that the history of India’s struggle for freedom is usually told from the perspective of the non-violence movement. How can we just brush off the facts of armed resistance to colonial occupation? Could it ever be possible without bloodshed? Sanyal  names Vinayak Savarkar, Aurobindo Ghosh, Rashbehari Bose, Bagha Jatin, Sachindra Nath Sanyal, Bhagat Singh, Chandrashekhar Azad and Subhas Chandra Bose who were most prominent and contributed significantly to the freedom struggle. are still widely remembered. Their story is almost always presented as acts of individual heroism and not as part of a wider movement that had any overarching strategy or significant impact on the overall struggle for Independence. Many great freedom fighters have fought, lost lives leaving little trace of their heroic deeds. We the people have forgotten many heroes and their struggles, especially among the peasant and tribal populations. 

Sanyal says that the revolutionaries were part of a large network that sustained armed resistance against the British Empire for half a century. Besides India, they created a wide network in Britain, France, Thailand, Germany, Persia, Russia, Italy, Ireland, the United States, Japan and Singapore. At various junctures, they received official support and recognition from the governments of some of these countries. Even the internal dynamics of the Indian National Congress of the time cannot be understood without the revolutionaries, who enjoyed widespread support within the organization. India’s freedom struggle was not a small-scale movement of naive individual heroism but one that involved a large number of extraordinary young men and women who were connected in multiple ways to each other and to the evolving events of their times. It was a glorious and extensive event panning over almost seven decades.

As an appreciator of history, I always feel dejected the way the Congress downplayed Sardar Patel’s struggle in implementing strategies and his stanch attempts to integrate the princely states into the Indian federation.  In true sense injustice was done to the ‘Iron Man of India.’ And I always feel India’s destiny would have changed if Sardar Patel would be our first Prime Minister because he rose from the grassroot level and he knew the nation. He was not anglicized. 

I profoundly agree with George Orwell’s quote. And, it is so obvious that the Britishers twisted history of India as a tool for demoralizing the natives. Since almost all our leaders in pre independence era were educated under the British system. The prejudiced history had tremendous impact on the psyche of our leaders such as Jawaharlala Nehru. I suppose
while learning slanted history he developed an inferior view of the country.

The British twisted the history of India by misinterpreting the outline; in a letter dated December 16, 1868 the famous Indologist Max Muller wrote to the Duke of Argyll, the then Secretary of State of India, ‘India has been conquered once, but India must be conquered again and that second conquest should be a conquest by education’. Please try to understand how Britishers planned our downfall and to a great extent they succeeded. Prof. Max Muller was not just a philosopher; he was also an examiner for the Indian Civil Service (ICS) examination. Teaching the Indian students falsified history played a great part in this ‘second conquest’. 

Conclusion

Recognising unsung heroes is an essential step towards restoring the historical narrative of India. The story of non-violence does not go well it is denialism. Ironically India’s romancing of non-violence as an effective political instrument has crimped national security policy since independence. The country felled to nonviolence during the Sino-India war in 1962. Luckily the burden of its idealistic national philosophy has changed since past decade.

Our past cannot be undone. History is not only about lauding past events or heroes. It is also about understanding why something that troubles us today has happened in a particular period and has been haunting since that period. Why we Indians allowed Mughals and British rule us for centuries? The answer is we were dominated because Hindu rulers were never united.

The Indian Government at the centre scrapped Article 370 on Monday, 5^th August 2019; the article in the Indian constitution had granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir. This day in true sense will be called Historical Day. The integration came with an order saying “it shall come into force at once”. Union Home Minister Mr. Amit Shah moved the Rajya Sabha, announcing the government had decided to repeal Article 370. Shah also announced that government has decided bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories – Jammu and Kashmir, which will have a legislature, and Ladakh, which will be without a legislature.

The BJP led Government in centre had promised the nation about the integration. 1953, Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, president of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, died in a jail in Srinagar where he was detained by the Sheikh Abdullah government for protesting against Kashmir being an “autonomous republic within India.” Shyama Prasad Mukherjee died mysteriously in the jail. A year before his death, Mukherjee was the president of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh – the predecessor of the present day Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Several resolutions were passed by the Bharatiya Jana Sangh against the policies of the Jawaharlal Nehru and Sheikh Abdullah government on their stance on the Kashmir issue.

As a nation we were eagerly waiting for integration of Kashmir with other states, and it took 73 years! The five characters responsible for J&K problem were Maharaja Hari Singh, Pt. Jawahar Lal Nehru, Lord Mountbatten, Sheikh Abdullah and Mohammad Ali Jinnah. But in every case the buck stops at Pt. Nehru. The brief history about this state is: in 1947 when India and Pakistan got freedom, Kashmir did not join any of them. Hari Singh who was the ruler decided to remain free. When on 22^nd October 1947 the Muslim tribes attacked Kashmir, Hari Singh sought help of Indian Government against the attackers. Prime Minister Nehru told him that Government would help him if Kashmir was ready to join India.
Kashmir became a part of India. But it was mentioned in the pact (article 370), that
Kashmir will get a separate honour. Except the economy, foreign policy and armed forces, the Kashmir government will be the supreme power. Article 370 gave it significant autonomy, including its own constitution, a separate flag, and independent decision making in all matters.

Article 370 and 35A are brilliant examples of how poor leadership can wreck even a county’s constitution. The petition can be termed as ‘illegal’ since it had been filed by Nehru without cabinet approval. To mend Nehru’s poor decision, India took 73 years, which is too long a time….

 Clause 3 of Article 370 empowers the President to declare the special status granted to Jammu and Kashmir under the Article out of action anytime. A Presidential Order was issued using this provision to implement what the Bharatiya Janata Party had promised in the Lok Sabha election held in April-May 2019, and which had been the party’s long-standing demand since 1953.

Article 370(3) reads, “Notwithstanding anything in the foregoing provisions of this article, the President may, by public notification, declare that this article shall cease to be operative or shall be operative only with such exceptions and modifications and from such date as he may specify”. Instead of scrapping Article 370, the government used the power given by the same Article to the President to make the provision ineffective. Scrapping of Article 370 would, otherwise, require a constitutional amendment under Article 368. But by invoking Article 370(3), the government has cleverly bypassed the amendment route.

Today, the 73^rd Independence Day is indeed special to us; Kasmir is integrated with India as Indian State and is put on the same footing as the rest of India. Kashmir will no longer have a separate constitution but will have to abide by the Indian constitution much like any other state. All Indian laws will be automatically applicable to Kashmiris, and people from outside the state will be able to buy property there.

Many Hindu Kashmiris feel like it’s their rebirth and they feel like honoured Indian citizens, while quite a few have a feeling of resentment. It will take some time for people of Kashmir to adjust to the status.  All said and done, the integration will develop the state of Kashmir and Ladakh tremendously. It is the beginning of a new era in the country. It’s a feeling of euphoria for the entire nation. Since Independence, the locals in Kashmir had been facing double whammy (two fold setback). They had to tolerate the hooliganism and violence of the anti-national politicians and the youths had to join groups of stone pelters as bonded labourers, often suffering bullet injuries from the paramilitary forces.

I am happy for though it took long 73 years time of waiting, the problem is ended! This year’s Independence Day should be celebrated cheerfully.

WISHING ALL INDIANS A HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!

Women’s security: What do the people of India want? People want employment, equality and security. I read interview of a grosser from Meghalaya who says why isn’t the Government making the nation secure for women?  What is so called progress that our nation has made, what is the great deal that we have achieved? Our women are not secured in their own motherland. The induction of women pilots in air force, induction of women in armed forces are optimistic steps the government has taken, yet, the security of women in India has always been a matter of concern. The situation has become more ironical because there have been various kind of programmes initiated by the Government for women, like the ‘ Beti Bachao Beti Padhao’, ‘ Ladli Laxmi Yojana’ and ‘ Sukanya Samridhi Yojna’. What is the great deal of all those schemes, where a woman’s identity is at stake, can they really celebrate on being a woman?

Unemployment: The demographics of the nation are such that nearly 1.3 crore Indians leave the workforce every year because they cross 65 years of age, or die. On the other hand, over 2.5 crore citizens celebrate their 15th birthdays every year. This means 1.2 crore people effectively join the workforce every year. According to the World Bank estimates the number is closer to 1.56 crore, or 13 lakh per month. Ironically, this is what we call India’s demographic dividend. Normally, economic growth comes from higher per capita productivity, that is, the same workforce produces more, or a larger workforce, which ensures growth even with flat productivity. A bulge at the lower end of workforce pyramid (younger people at the bottom of the pyramid) guarantees strong growth for decades, subject to, of course, to the workforce being productively employed. In India’s case, the economy needs to create employment for roughly 10 lakh people a month to cash in on the demographic dividend. This pathetic reality exits after seven decades of its independence.

The available data indicates that, four years into the BJP’s term, unemployment remains a big concern. In 2017, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated that 30% of Indians aged 18 to 29 was unemployed and looking for work.

Standard of living: The idea of a “fully unified nation” in the Indian context refers to only vagueness: be it economic, gender, caste, religion we are far from it. Equality per say remains open ended question unless we spell out in what context we are mentioning it. Economic equality refers to an imaginary situation in which all the inhabitants of a country or region are equally wealthy. Whether the proposition is feasible and sensible has been a major point of contention between free market supporters and socialist thinkers. But the questions involved are really very simple. People are longing for better living conditions instead of looking for economic equality. For many people the concept of freedom is vague. They feel what freedom is all about; they don’t have the basics of food, shelter and clothing. BJP promised improved standard of living to crores of Indians. The situation has not improved for the down trodden.

Reservation quotas: The clamor for ‘reserved quotas’ is only growing which is highly politicized; government does not want to change it for vote bank politics. Is reservation legitimate after 72 years of independence? Does a ‘democratic’ country still need it? Do we still need to divide the country on caste, creed and religion? The laws can be changed to suit the people of our country by passing a bill in the parliament. Yes, we can indeed change the “reservation system” in our country. Till such time we don’t alter the bill of reservation, we will never experience what equality means. Whether it is education, employment or any benefits, the chances are given to the ‘reserved classes.’  Reservation has become a roadblock in progress of this country. This is the reason the deserving are leaving the country and settling down in advanced countries.

Four years of BJP Government: In past four years the Modi Government has failed on issues of Jobs, inflation, basic necessities and security of women mainly. The BJP Government had promised to bring back black money stashed in overseas banks. However, this remains only verbal, no actions taken. Among other promises, the manifesto talked about ensuring a minimum of 50 per cent profits over the cost of production for the farmers, reforming Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC) Act 2003, implementing farm insurance and adopting a ‘National Land Use Policy’, which remains only on papers. Farmers are distressed in most parts of the country. Suicides are still taking place. The Lokpal bill is also sidelined.

Conclusion of exit polls: The masses in nation need to experience the benefits. Big manifestoes, tall promises during the canvassing of elections need to be implemented and delivered. It’s the mass pes who     they go out in majority and vote. The poor mostly vote because they feel vote is their right and the fresh new government will give them livable environment. The poor voters turn up to booths in a hope that they will not be mistreated and ignored; when they feel cheated, they easily cast out a government, hope BJP picks the clues.

We are living in an era of social media. From morning to night, most of the people are glued to their smartphones checking Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, Instagram, Linkedin, and YouTube everywhere at home, office, while travelling, in public transports and roads anywhere. With the increase of addiction of Internet, social media is emerging as the best mode of communication. With over 460 million internet users, India is the second largest online market, ranked only behind China. By 2021, there will be about 635.8 million internet users in India. The widespread use of social networking in India has been on the rise especially among the new generation youths.

In 2008 and 2012, the world witnessed Obama’s winning strategies using social media.  Not only was Obama the first African American to be elected president, but he was also the first presidential candidate to effectively use social media as a major campaign strategy. In 2008, American voters were sent out voting reminders on Twitter and interacting with people on Facebook was a big deal. Following his footsteps, in 2014, the BJP straight dived head strong into social media conversations. Their constant activities were aimed towards spreading awareness and having a direct connection with the voters. On a daily basis, various competing hash-tags like #NaMoInUdhampur, #KejriwalInVaranasi made debut.  Politics is a favourite topic for discussions among the young and old. The hash-tags are famous on Twitter and Twitter users get pulled into it.

Already, we are witnessing blitz of anti and pro political campaigns on our smartphones for the 2019 general elections. Advertising experts and industry leaders are betting on the overall expenditure of the campaigns worth Rs. 5,000 crore. The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party is already spending quite a bit on advancing ‘Brand Modi’ in terms of achievements of his  government in the last four years, all campaigns undertaken by the BJP and its several ministries and departments have revolved around NaMo. The main opposition Congress is also likely to spend close to Rs 1,500-2,000 crore on mass media and other Rs. 400-500 crore on digital campaign.

We cannot ignore a fact that politics and media share a complex synergistic relationship; media, politics and elections are knotted together and social media platforms have become the essential ground for the discussion of political narratives.

Recently when the Uttar Pradesh unit of the BJP met, there was one session which had a lot of outside states turn up. It was held in Meerut and attended by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Home Minister Rajnath Singh amongst others. The social media session was attended by BJP President Amit Shah. The message is clear:  if social media was the X-factor in 2014 polls, the 2019 it will be their main focus. It seems BJP plans to have a social media coordinator for every single booth in the election. Let’s consider each booth has approximately 2,000 voters which mean that the BJP social media team across the country would run into approximately four and half lakh social media coordinators.

As per the Election Commission records India has 81.5 crore voters, among them exist BJP volunteers and workers who are trained in social media. They all are armed with a Smartphone. What a fantastic strategy.  The 2019 election is few months away and already few lakhs volunteers are working. But, the BJP is looking for many more as they need to penetrate their campaigns in interiors parts of India which is too vast. BJP is on organizing spree of meetings to boost their social media campaigns. After the strategy of page pramukh worked well in Gujarat (one worker to be in charge of each page list of voters) it is decided to have two pramukhs for each page. Since every page has a front and a back.

However, globally some election experts have raised alarm against recent elections in some countries where social media campaigns influenced the election proceedings to such an extent that the democratic process came under threat. There is an alarming worry that outside interests can work to undermine the democratic process in a subtle and sneaky way. In April 2017, Facebook admitted that its platform had been exploited by governments seeking to manipulate public opinion in other countries during the presidential elections in the US and France. Facebook pledged to clamp down on such operations.

Many countries in the world are running election campaigns on social media. Look at the recent example – in the closely-fought election in Malaysia, former Prime Minister Najib Razak who is dogged by corruption allegations was ousted and arrested, and the election results were revoked. Courtiers such as Singapore and Philippines are actively proposing legislation on fake news, while Germany introduced a new law that compels social media networks to remove hate speech. Indonesia has launched a new cyber security agency as part of its efforts to deal with online religious fanaticism, online hate speech, nip terrorist groups and fake news on social media.

It has become big task for the Election Commission of India; they have set a panel to scrutinize the growing use of social media platforms like WhatsApp, Facebook and YouTube. The panel has recommended processes to deal with violations. The nation has seen a rise in religious and ethnic tensions in recent times; few people are killed due to rumours spread on social media about child kidnappings, rapes and cow smuggling. Fake news and paid news are matters of concern and misuse on social media. The Election Commission of India is tightening rules and regulations to plug loopholes in the forthcoming general election.

What makes people of country happy? Is it economy? Is it environment? Is it education? Is it government policies? Well all of these do contribute to people’s happiness in a country. But, it is not necessary to be higher economic pace and growth always. People are happier when they don’t experience inequality in distribution of wealth; people don’t mind paying taxes when there is fairness in tax structure. People are happy when government practices transparency in the implementing policies. People want safety, people want welfare, people want good infrastructure, hygiene and people want good quality education.

Corruption undermines government revenue and, therefore, limits the capacity of the government to invest in productive areas.  Corruption distorts the decision-making in public investment projects. It’s been observed the higher the level of corruption in a country, the larger the share of its economic activity that will go subversive, beyond the reach of the tax authorities. Corruption discourages entrepreneurship and innovation, it only encourages inefficiency. It dislocates the human resources.  It creates uncertainty among the citizens. And, it diminishes legitimacy in all walks of life and increases crimes.

In all countries there are rich and poor; but when the levels of inequality are low, and the welfare systems are strong, the citizens are happy. People don’t mind paying higher taxes. Look at Denmark, it ranks 158th in the world and Switzerland is even worse, at 174^th in the World & Economic Ranking standards.

The World Happiness Index Report is an annual publication of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network which contains rankings of national happiness and analysis of the data from various perspectives. The first World Happiness Report was released in April 2012. In a high level meeting of UN well-being and Happiness were defined as new economic paradigms which drew international attention.

The report primarily uses data from the Gallup World Poll. Gallup is a credible polling organization. It is respected highly in media. Nevertheless, all researches including polling have some weaknesses which depend on the various methodologies and details of the poll and its questionnaires. Each research has few statistical limitations. Gallup ensures that each annual report is available to the public to download on the World Happiness Report website.

Happiness index is measured using parameters like Housing, Income, Work, Community, Civic Engagement, Education, Environment, Health, Life Satisfaction, Safety and Life-Work balance etc. Each report is organized by chapters that delve deeper into issues relating to happiness. The chapters also include mental illness, the objective benefits of happiness, the importance of ethics, policy implications which lead to subjective wellbeing. The report is based on how strong a country’s social foundation and social trust is.

Bhutan is one of the Buddhist Kingdoms in the World and so far has preserved much of their culture since the 17th century. Even with globalization, Bhutan follows its Buddhist culture. It allows a certain number of foreigners into the country each year, and the two hundred dollars a day that must be paid by every traveller is a deterrent for many. Internet, television, and western dress were banned from the country up until ten years ago. But over the past ten years globalization has proved to be a challenge to this tiny nation. Things have begun to change, but they are trying to balance things in their own way.

Bhutan is the only country in the world that has a ‘GNH’ which is “Gross National Happiness.” The process of measuring GNH began when Bhutan opened up to globalization. It measures people’s quality of life, and makes sure that both material and spiritual development happen together in its citizen’s lives. Bhutan has balanced it rightly so far.

Happiness is very important to both individuals and as a country. A happy individual is productive and creative. As human beings, although we possess cognitive abilities and are highly “thought” oriented, the quality of our lives is determined by our emotions. A happy human is emotionally strong because happiness protects heart, it strengthens immune system, it helps in combating stress, it found that happy people have fewer aches and pains.

All Nordic countries are among the happiest countries on the planet, as are Switzerland, the Netherlands, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Finland is the winner in 2018 report. Finland’s 5.5 million residents enjoy more forest per square mile than any European country. They have maintained extremely high environmental standards. It’s a peaceful place on Earth. Its immigrants are also happy. The World Happiness Report made particular mention of the consistency in happiness between them and local born residents.

In 2018 World Happiness Index Report, India ranks at 133^rd place with a drop of eleven places since previous report. Pakistan is ranked 75th, while Nepal ranked at 101^st, Sri Lanka at 116th position and Bangladesh at 115^th, Bhutan at 97^th place. If you wonder which is the world’s least happy country? It is Burundi, followed by Central African Republic, South Sudan and Tanzania, due to condemnation of life in Africa.

Plastic bags are a big threat to our environment, because a single plastic bag takes 1000 hours to decay completely as they are made of petrochemicals which are nonrenewable. This means that the plastic bags will stay for a longer period of time and damage our Mother Nature. In the ocean, there are 46,000 pieces of plastic per square mile. The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is located in the North Pacific Gyre off the coast of California and is the largest ocean garbage site in the world, it’s twice the size of Texas! Sadly, the pieces of plastic are outnumbering sea life in the ratio of 6:1. We are sitting on a big time bomb called plastic.

Clearing plastic is a costly business: The plastic litter has to be picked up and cleared properly.  In one year, the cost of clearing littered plastic bags in one big country like UK is approximately ten million pounds.  If the plastic bags did not exist in the first place, this cost could be saved and used for some other purpose. The plastic bags that we take end up as litter; as much as we try to be responsible with how we deal with our trash? Some of these end up in landfills and they take many years to decompose. Environmental campaigners tell us that once in the landfill, the plastic will take about 1000 years before they decompose. Let’s not forget the cause of floods in Mumbai during 26th July 2005. The culprit for the massive floods were Plastic bags, they had clogged all the major drainage points which caused the deadly floods.

They create a threat to wildlife: The loosely littered plastic bags find their way into the environment; they become a hazard to the birds, animals and fish as they choke them. The most vulnerable are marine wildlife since they often find their way to the waters.  Generally, more than 260 species of marine animals are affected by plastic debris in the ocean, either by digestion or entanglement. Laysan Albatross, sea turtles, monk seals, whales and many species of fish have been found with large amounts of plastic in their stomachs.

Many times when a fish, sea mammal or sea bird swallows the particles found in these plastic, the gut becomes blocked and this can easily and quickly harm the organism or in some instances even kill it. Birds can also mistake them for nesting material or for fish and should they entangle their legs or heads in them, they then die.

In the creation of plastic bags, finite natural resources such as oil are consumed. One research showed that more than a hundred million oil barrels are used yearly in the making of plastic around the world.  In the US alone, approximately 12 million barrels of oil is used to make the plastic bags that Americans consume annually. Plastic production worldwide uses around 8% of the world’s oil production. Plus, the manufacturing process, transportation and disposal require large quantities of non-renewable resources and release equally large amounts of global-warming gases.

Ironically we use these bags for about 20 minutes and then discard them aimlessly. We see them littered along the railway line, housing colonies, on roads, Is this what we want? Isn’t this a foolish act of ourselves against us? As plastic bags are not bio-degradable, the only way to get rid of them is by burning them up, but it leads to emission of toxic fumes which increases pollution and causes deadly diseases like cancer.

It is high time we say bye to plastic because they only make our world ugly. Two schoolgirls Melati and Isabel Wijsen in Bali Island in Indonesia rallied their classmates to battle the fight against plastic they convinced their governor to commit to a plastic bag-free Bali by 2018. The island will soon be free of plastic bags, and the rest of Indonesia is getting ready to fight plastic usage. Plastic bag bans work. Several other countries already ban or restrict them, including Bangladesh and China, where its use fell radically. Getting Bali to say bye-bye to the pollution could be the first step in making Indonesia plastic bag free.

Let’s take an oath in this New Year to gradually get rid of our plastic addiction.  Let us start using reusable baskets and reusable tote bags, let us curb the need for plastic bags. There are innovative people out there, who already have smart solutions for everything.

Batting maestro Sachin Tendulkar while speaking at the unveiling of an album ‘The Sport Heroes’ aimed to inspire the younger generation towards sports and winning for the nation; he said that singing the National Anthem in front of a packed Wankhede Stadium before the 2011 World Cup final is the “proudest feeling” he has ever had in his life. He further said that singing of national anthem goes to a different level altogether, when you are playing against Pakistan in 2003 World Cup, standing inside the stadium, in the middle of the group, with 60,000 people singing ‘Jana Gana Mana’. The right-handed former India batsman says his chest swells in pride while singing National Anthem.

In recent days, we Indians have been talking and experiencing a lot of distortion of emotions over whether to stand or not to stand for National Anthem before the screening of movie in the cinema halls. In a verdict of Supreme Court on 14^th Feb 2017, the verdict is clear: all the cinema halls in India shall play the National Anthem before the feature film starts and all present in the hall are obliged to stand up to show respect to the National Anthem.  Prior to the National Anthem is played or sung in the cinema hall on the screen, the entry and exit doors shall remain closed so that no one can create any kind of disturbance which will amount to disrespect to the National Anthem.

After the National Anthem is played or sung, the doors can be opened. When the National Anthem shall be played in the Cinema Halls, it shall be with the National Flag on the screen. a time has come, the citizens of the country must realize that they live in a nation and are duty bound to show respect to National Anthem which is the symbol of the Constitutional Patriotism and inherent national quality. It does not allow any different notion or the perception of individual rights that have individually thought of have no space. The idea is constitutionally impermissible.

Let’s look at how some other countries of world treat their National Anthem and National Flags:

The convention in the United States is pretty clear: when the National Anthem is being played, whether or not the American flag is displayed, all individuals should face the flag/the source of music and stand at attention with the right hand over their hearts. But the United States does not discipline its citizens for failing to stand up.

Russia fines its citizens for the offence of mocking its National Anthem, and its government is considering adding criminal charges of up to one year of imprisonment or hard labor for not respecting the national anthem of the Russian Federation.

In Mexico, according to the Law of the Coat of Arms, Flag, and National Anthem, all schools and universities are supposed to honour the flag on Monday mornings, and the beginning and end of school terms.

In Italy, the National Anthem isn’t played at schools or other public places, except during sporting events, at formal state ceremonies and at public rallies attended by the President. No one is required to sing along or behave in some particular way while the National Anthemis being played. However, Italians are required to stand and show respect to any National Anthem.

Thailand’s love for its anthem is more intense than most. It is played every day on television at 8 am and 6 pm. Students of all ages gather in front of the national flag at 8 am and sing the National Anthem together. The national anthem is also played regularly in government offices, and before movie screenings. However, there is no law regarding the national anthem in Thailand. It’s just an unofficial convention.

Rationality: The matter about standing in respect of the National Flag and National Anthem is a collective action; we collectively watch a film in cinema halls, which is a shred activity based on collective intention of watching a film. We jointly attend a single objective – the film. So when jointly we all stand in respect for the National Anthem, it just shows our intrinsic emotion. As a gathering of some hundreds of people we are moved by genuine affection for the country may be for those few minutes. For those few minutes, we vouch for collective identity. National symbols are useful to transcend collective identity, which for few moments gives us a sense of higher purpose. I call it the social cohesion of the people.

The act of standing up and respecting the National Anthem promotes harmony and the spirit of common brotherhood amongst all the people of India, rising above religious, linguistic and regional or sectional diversities.  My eyes get moist with tears when I see and hear the National Anthem. And it’s a matter of just 90 seconds. It’s sad that some citizens of the country feel that they are being pushed into standing in respect for the anthem against their will, and the act described as ‘irrational’. I don’t understand that why few people find the act irrational?  I don’t understand how it amounts to an indiscriminating act??

The Nordic countries comprise of a geographical and cultural region in Northern Europe and the North Atlantic, where they are most commonly known as Norden which literally means ‘The North’. It includes Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden including their associated territories Greenland, Faroe Island and Aland Island. The population of the Nordic countries belongs mainly to Scandinavian or Finnish communities. And their main religion is Lutheran Christianity.

The Bloomberg Innovation Index which uses parameters such as research and development spending, value-added manufacturing, productivity and the concentration of high-tech public organizations scores. In its 2017 innovation index has announced Sweden at number two and Finland at number five in the top five! Bloomberg Indiex is called ‘The battle of ideas’.

Every year, the World Economic Forum releases its Global Competitiveness Report on the state of the world’s economies based again on innovations and productivity, which takes into account things like the quality of scientific research at universities, company spending on R&D (research and development), collaboration between universities and industry, patents, and the number of engineers and scientists in each country.

The 2016 ranking by WEF puts Sweden in the top 10 countries for the ease of doing business. The WEF looks at data on areas as varied as the soundness of banks to the sophistication of businesses in each country. It then uses the data to compile a picture of the economy of almost every country on earth. In WEF’s index also Denmark is lauded for its leadership in world for renewable energy technology, with 140% of the country’s energy being met by wind power.

Finland is “well positioned in terms of innovation,” WEF says, with its capacity to innovate supported by the excellent availability of scientists and engineers and a high degree of collaboration between universities and industry. The government funds high amount on R&D as well as corporate innovation projects.

WEF recognizes Sweden for its several high-profile technical success stories over the past decade; WEF thinks that Sweden is well equipped to embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with a strong score on technological readiness and ranked within the top 10 in innovation. However, the availability of scientists and engineers is falling. It is a reminder to the country that renewed efforts are required to invest in human capital and skills to ensure long-term competitiveness and innovation capacity, for which Nordic countries are known.

Since 2008, Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property Organization release the annual Global Innovation Index (GII). Basically, it’s a list of the most innovative countries in the world. In its 2016 GII index Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and Finland have scored high numbers.

The GII index also recognizes Sweden for its improvements in the basic factors of competitiveness, especially the macroeconomic environment. Sweden’s labor market functions reasonably well and the country is reported to have a high employment rate, with a high level of women’s participation in the workforce. Though WEF index suggests that Sweden has dropped its performance in terms of the effect of taxation on incentives to work, and restrictive labor regulations are perceived as the second-most problematic factor for doing business. In addition, the availability of scientists and engineers is falling, which is a reminder that renewed efforts to invest in human capital and skills are necessary to ensure long-term competitiveness and innovation capacity. What we need to note is that Swedes themselves promote an atmosphere of great personal ambition.

The Nordic countries share a common economic perspective. They are all small, open economies in which foreign trade has great economic significance. These countries have evolved rapidly from poor, agrarian countries into modern industrialized economies among the most competitive countries in the world. The “Nordic model” is therefore considered attractive by other countries in world by both individuals and policy-makers. The model is based transparency, pragmatism and the nationalist spirit among the citizens. These smaller countries are proud owners of large public sectors, including welfare services, and high taxation. And, they have performed so well economically.

Though there are some notes of cautions for these countries such as:  small, open economies are particularly vulnerable to international economic fluctuations. For example, in the financial crisis of 2008, Iceland was hit hard. Though, Finland and Sweden endured severe economic crises in the early 1990s, and Norway experienced a banking crisis around the same time. In the 1980s, Denmark suffered a serious structural crisis that led to the implementation of a comprehensive emergency program famously known as “potato diet”. The crises of the 1990s also led to many structural changes in the Swedish and Finnish economies, and Iceland is now going through the throbbing process of transformation.

But it is really appreciable these small Nordic countries are dominating the innovation indexes in research, infrastructure, institutions, market and business sophistication, and a commitment to knowledge and creativity!! The Nordic countries pride themselves on the honesty and transparency of their governments. A point to note here is that Nordic governments are subject to rigorous inquiry: for example, in Sweden everyone has access to all official records. Politicians are disparaged if they get off their bicycles and into official limousines. Transparency tops the governance of these small yet dynamic countries.

The Nordics have added two other important qualities to transparency: pragmatism and determinedness.  When these countries realized that the old social democratic consensus was no longer working, they let it go with remarkably little fuss and introduced new ideas from across the political spectrum. They were absolutely determined in pushing through reforms. It is stupidity to mistake Nordic geniality as their vulnerability. Pragmatism explains why the new consensus has quickly replaced the old one. Nordic countries can often seem to be amalgams of left- and right-wing policies.

They still have plenty of problems: their governments remain too big and their private sectors too small. Their taxes are still too high and some of their benefits too generous. The Danish system of flexicurity (flexi security) puts too much emphasis on security and not enough on flexibility. Norway’s oil boom is threatening to destroy the work ethic. It is a bad sign that over 6% of the workforce are on sick leave at any one time and around 9% of the working-age population live on disability pensions. But the Nordics are continuing to introduce structural reforms, thought bit slowly, they are continually working on them. The lesson the world should take from them is their ability to invest in human capital and protect them first.